Hamburg-based Berenberg Capital Markets recently highlighted the upcoming Bitcoin halving event as a potential trigger for the bullish case of Microstrategy, a United States-based software firm, in a recent research note.
The research note emphasized that Microstrategy, with a bullish price target of $430, primarily derives its value from its substantial holdings of over 150,000 BTC. And Berenberg expects the historical trend of Bitcoin rallying after each halving to repeat.
Halving Events And Bitcoin’s Market Impact
Halving events are significant occurrences in the Bitcoin network that happen approximately every four years. During these events, the rate of new coin issuance is reduced by 50%, resulting in a slower influx of new Bitcoins into the market. The upcoming fourth Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 26, 2024, is expected to follow this pattern.
Berenberg’s recent research note highlighted the historical trend observed in the previous three halvings and suggested that a pre-halving rally could potentially commence in about four months. If this rally follows a similar trajectory to previous halvings. It could persist until approximately October 2025, according to the research note.
If the historical pattern established by the first three Bitcoin halvings continues to play out with the fourth halving, then the pre-halving rally would begin about four months from now. If a rally were to occur after the fourth halving, and if it were as long-lived as the rallies that occurred after the past couple of halvings, then it would continue until around October 2025.
Correlation Between Bitcoin And Microstrategy’s Stock
According to the research note, there is a strong correlation between Microstrategy’s stock price and the price of Bitcoin, estimated to be around 0.90. If the fourth bitcoin halving triggers a significant rally in the price of the cryptocurrency, it is likely that Microstrategy’s stock will follow suit.
This forecast is due to the positive outlook for Bitcoin’s post-halving performance contributing to the anticipation of a potential rally in Microstrategy’s stock price.
Following the release of Berenberg’s research note, Microstrategy’s stock, with the ticker symbol MSTR, has already witnessed a notable surge of 7% in the past day. The stock, which was trading below its current price range in the previous month, is now valued at $407.
The market’s positive response reflects the optimism surrounding the potential impact of the upcoming Bitcoin halving event on Microstrategy’s performance. Furthermore, it is worth noting that the concept of halving has since been associated with significant market movements in the past. And investors closely monitor these events for potential opportunities.
The reduction in new coin issuance, combined with market demand, has historically contributed to price appreciation in Bitcoin. As such, the anticipation of the upcoming halving has sparked interest and speculation among market participants.
Berenberg’s analysis adds to the narrative that the halving event could have a bullish impact on the price of Bitcoin. And, consequently, on companies like Microstrategy, which holds a substantial amount of Bitcoin on its balance sheet.
Featured image from Blockchain Reporter, Chart from TradingView