In the past 14 days, the Bitcoin price has displayed a significant uptrend of 14.5%, signaling a resurgence in bullish sentiment. This rally comes as Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been trading for nearly a month, with the market already factoring in this development. As a result, Bitcoin is back on its natural course, gaining momentum ahead of the scheduled halving in April.
Currently, Bitcoin has not only regained its bullish momentum after a brief dip to the $38,500 level but has also surpassed the $45,300 mark. It now edges closer to its 25-month high of $49,000, with the $50,000 milestone within reach.
Achieving this level would significantly narrow the gap between the current price and Bitcoin’s all-time high (ATH) of $69,000. However, what are the main catalysts behind this uptrend, and how far can the Bitcoin price climb?
Reduction Of GBTC Flows And Net Positive BTC Spot ETF Inflows
According to the latest analysis by QCP Capital, two key factors are driving Bitcoin’s upward trajectory:
Daily outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have decreased from $500-600 million to $100-200 million. Simultaneously, total inflows across all Bitcoin ETFs are now positive. This shift in the GBTC flows, and the emergence of net positive BTC spot ETF inflows contribute to the current bullish trend, according to the crypto trading firm’s analysis
Additionally, notable price movements have been observed around “spot ETF fixings.” Between 3-4 pm EST, QCP has recorded that the Bitcoin price tends to tick higher, possibly due to the one-hour observation window used by the BlackRock ETF (IBIT) to calculate its Net Asset Value (NAV).
Conversely, downward pressure is typically observed after 4 pm EST as GBTC employs a point fix, leading market makers to sell around and after the fix.
Strong Performance In US Equities
Despite the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and higher US yields driven by robust February Non-Farm Payroll data (353k actual vs. 180k expected), US equities continue outperforming.
Companies like NVDA and META have rallied due to strong earnings and positive headlines. Underallocated investors will likely continue buying any equities dips as they chase returns.
According to the analysis, this bullish sentiment is expected to “spill” over into BTC and Ethereum (ETH), further fueled by the upcoming BTC halving and the ETH spot ETF narratives.
Ultimately, the trading firm assesses significant interest in accumulators, which enable investors to purchase Bitcoin or ETH at a “substantial discount” to the current spot price. This strategy is believed to present an attractive opportunity for bullish investors looking to build long positions throughout the year.
Bitcoin Price Faces Strong Barriers On Its Way To $50,000
Despite the uptrend, notable resistance levels could impede further upward movement and potentially lead to a consolidation phase for Bitcoin.
To assess the nearest-term resistances accurately, the 1-hour chart indicates potential price paths for Bitcoin in the coming days if these bearish thresholds are breached.
In the immediate time frame, the $45,500 level emerges as Bitcoin’s next resistance level. This level previously marked a correction in the Bitcoin price shortly after the introduction of ETF trading.
Subsequently, the next target would be the $46,600 level if the immediate resistance at $45,500 is surpassed. However, while these two thresholds may present challenges, no significant resistance levels are evident on Bitcoin’s hourly chart until the $48,500 level.
This particular level represents the final hurdle for Bitcoin before reclaiming its previous high reached on January 11, immediately following the approval of ETFs by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Considering the combined factors of Grayscale’s reduced sell-off and the overall performance of the equity market, alongside renewed investor sentiment, Bitcoin could potentially surge to previous highs and even surpass them, marking new highs since the end of the crypto winter.
The key factor to be seen is how Bitcoin’s price will respond when encountering these highlighted resistance walls and whether the buying pressure will be sufficient to propel Bitcoin back on track toward the bullish momentum observed at the beginning of 2024.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com